UK General Election 2024: Change Begins?

Entirely in line with expectations, polls and predictions, Keir Starmer has become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.With two seats left to declare, Labour have 412 seats and a majority of more than 170. On any analysis, this was clearly a hugely successful night for Starmer and his Labour Party – and a deeply sobering one for the Conservatives.

The headline might be Starmer’s victory but the wider election story is one of many subtexts – an electorate seemingly determined to kick the Tories out of Government; Reform UK attracting millions of votes; Greens and Independents eating into Labour votes; the collapse of the SNP; Liberal Democrats taking scores of seats from the Conservatives across the south; and widespread voter apathy / disillusionment, with this election seeing the one of lowest turnouts since the Second World War. Perhaps even more eye-catching is that Labour’s vote share hardly budged between the 2019 and 2024 elections (and they received more than half a million votes fewer) – yet the electoral dynamics meant they picked up more than 200 extra seats!

There were high profile successes and casualties, including Corbyn winning as an Independent in Islington North, Farage winning Clacton (one of four Reform UK seats), Liz Truss losing her seat and a large number of Conservative cabinet members also being cast aside (including Grant Shapps, Gillian Keegan and Penny Mordaunt). Senior Labour figures Thangam Debbonaire and Jon Ashworth also lost, the latter highly unexpectedly, and Wes Streeting was run extraordinarily close.

Sunak, upon leaving Downing Street, took responsibility for the Tories’ worst electoral performance in modern times ands aid that he had heard the country’s anger. He confirmed he would stand out as Conservative leader once arrangements were in place to choose his successor. The most obvious contenders for that position are well-known (e.g. Badenoch, Patel, Braverman, Cleverly and Jenrick) but we expect alternative names to come into the frame in the coming days. Many questions will be asked about the direction the party will go in (including in terms of the party’s approach to Reform) but those can wait for another day.

The obvious question for now is what we should expect from this new Labour Government. ‘Change’ has been their campaign slogan and the election results suggest that was a message which has resonated with the British people. But the specific questions of what change might entail and how it might be delivered have been left mainly unanswered, as Labour understandably decided to provide relatively little policy detail whilst riding high in the polls.

What we do know is that Rachel Reeves’ election pledges and wider promises of fiscal discipline have tied their hands in terms of obvious areas for tax rises and make any increases in public spending unlikely in the short-term. No wonder that the focus has been on stimulating growth – growth which is essential if taxes aren’t going to rise and if spending on public services can be increased in the future.

Securing growth is just one of Labour’s five missions (with the other four being around clean energy, the future of the NHS, ‘opportunity for all’ and safer streets, of course). But it is the foundational pillar upon which their other missions and plans for Government are built. And central to that growth mission, beyond providing ‘stability’ (a necessary but not sufficient condition for growth) are Labour’s plans for a new industrial strategy, planning reform, their Green Prosperity Plan, a newNational Wealth Fund and a greater push on devolution. Again, much of the detail behind these ambitions is lacking – but they provide important hooks for early engagement.

In the coming days and weeks, we can expect Starmer, Reeves and new Labour Ministers to want to show proactivity, drive and energy, with early announcements expected on planning reform, their legislative programme (with the King’s Speech due the week after next) and some of their energy and net zero plans in particular. At the same time, they will be getting used to the pace and pressures of their new roles, understanding how to work with the civil service and, of course, welcoming their new colleagues to Parliament.

The huge intake of new MPs means Parliament will take some time to get going in earnest (more than half of the 650 MPs are brand new), though the suggestion is that summer recess will be truncated to help Labour make early progress on theirlegislative agenda. Truth be told, the enormous majority that Labour now possesses means that Parliament is likely to play a less significant role in the coming years than it otherwise might. The other parties are too small to exert much influence andStarmer has the numbers which mean he should be able to overcome any backbench rebellions on his own side – not that we expect many of those any time soon.

Starmer’s message outside No.10 was one of unity, national renewal and public service. He pointed to some of his earlypriorities around rebuilding the country’s infrastructure, the need for more affordable housing and getting the NHS ‘back onits feet’. He pointed out that actions are more important than words and said that ‘the work of change begins immediately.

’The ‘first 100 days’ are seen as important for any incoming Government – and are particularly so in this case given the ‘urgentwork’ which Starmer says was required. We can expect July to be busy, therefore, as well as being a period of celebration forLabour (and contemplation for the Conservatives). With Labour Party Conference in less than three months and a Budget /Spending Review due to take place before the end of the year, the pace will not let up any time soon. How long the politicalhoneymoon will last, however, is a different question altogether.